Imagining how India will look in 2019, a month before the next election is an interesting exercise. This is important as most parties appear to be preparing for a 2019 which looks very similar to how it looks today. However, given the direction that the Modi Govt has taken and assuming success in all the programs, India may look quite different from today. I am only focussed on issues that impact the average voter.
Assuming that Make in India is a success and we grow at around 9% per annum for the next 3 years, we are likely to create about 13 million jobs a year. (Derived from here and here) which is marginally higher than the likely supply of new workforce in the next 3 years. However, it is likely that about 120-130 million Indians will still be unemployed in 2019 (116m unemployed in 2011 Census).
At 9% per annum of real growth as well as nominal growth (wpi at zero, cpi at a moderate 5%), per capita income of India which was closer to Bengal in 2014 would be closer in 2019 to 2014’s Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. Both the States are the richest large states in India (ahead of Punjab and Gujarat for example).
Assuming 30kms of Road are added everyday, India’s national highways and rural roads will have expanded by a whopping 50% by end of 2019. This would mean better roads, and faster access to many small towns across the country. It would probably become easier to access North East India as well.
Assuming Mr Prabhu’s plans are fully implemented, we would have added about 15000 km of additional track (30000 km has been added since Independence). Steep spends in the North East would mean that it would become easier to reach the North East. Steep spends on decongestion, rail safety, cleanliness and expansion of capacities would mean cleaner and much more comfortable journeys.
If Piyush Goyal’s vision comes true, every household would have access to electricity in 2019 (67% had access to electricity in 2011). This would be a dramatic improvement because between 2001 and 2011, penetration increased by just 11.5% points versus the 30% being planned between 2014-2019.
If the vision of Digital India comes through, most Indians will be connected online via high speed broadband. In parallel, an expansion of services and service centres would mean that large number of services will depend on local service centres to complete many of their asks instead of running around dodgy government officials. Effective implementation of Swacch Bharat Yojana will mean a cleaner and pleasant experience for Indians and foreigners alike making India a healthier place to live in and visit.
Financing and Subsidies
Full and effective implementation of JAM will mean lesser wastage of Govt subsidies, more incomes in the hand of the poorest and hopefully better access to financing from micro-credit institutions. This will enable the poorest to bring about further improvements in ther lives whether through better access to nutrition, education and small business.
In Sum, if the Government is able to just implement most of its current plans, we are likely to have households that have 50% higher incomes than when Mr Modi took power. More Indians than ever will be working in jobs and specifically in Manufacturing. Every household will have affordable power and that itself will spur many positives including a conducive environment for education, home businesses, support for agriculture etc. It will be easier to travel within and across cities, towns and villages making it easier for the average person to do business in a much wider area than ever before. It will be easier to transport goods to a much a wider area and in faster times than ever before. Improvement in financial access and literacy will provide much needed capital to deserving households spurring small business growth. Petty corruption will come down quite a bit as Indians will be able to access many services online and closer to their home (service centres). Should all of these be implemented to the T, all these actions will solidify support for the NDA in the 120 fully urban constituencies while providing it a good defence in many rural constituencies thus paving way for possible re-election in 2019.
Potential Risks in these plans
Many of the above plans are struggling in terms of execution. Railway finances are in tatters and Make in India is just about dragging mainly due to the debt stress in Corporate India. Skill India which was supposed to provide skilled manpower to support Make in India is just about picking pace. While Piyush Goyal and Ravi Shankar Prasad are likely to ensure electricity and Digital India reaches every village, it is unclear how the poorest 20% with little access to education and hardly any incomes will be able to access these services directly. None of the plans are likely to dramatically reduce unemployment by 2019 which means that there are likely to be about 30-40 million unhappy households in 2019
At this moment, there is no clear strategy for rural households. While it is likely that farmers will have better access to markets, no significant improvements in availability of water and no clear strategy on education will mean that marginal farmer households (about 100 million households) are likely to trail rest of the country on most paramters. Further, with the likelihood for more jobs for labour (skilled and semi-skilled), cost of farm labour is likely to go up dramatically making farming an increasingly unrewarding place to be in than ever before. With wobbly plans as of now, India wil continue to languish both in terms of quality of education and innovation both of which have a huge impact on a Country’s future. Overall, tt is also likely that many of these plans are likely to benefit States that already have some base (South+West) as opposed to States that have little base (Most of East India as well as One half of Uttar Pradesh). The Southern and West States contribute to about 200 lok Sabha seats). Lastly, with no clear strategy on reforming Police forces and the availability of Judiciary, visiting the Police Station or getting entangled in Civilian Cases would mean that Corruption would continue at some level and people will continue to be frustrated with the absence of true ‘ram rajya’ as far as law & order and courts are concerned.
Overall, should the Govt be able to implement all its plans to a reasonable level of efficiency, it looks comfortable to come back to power in 2019 even if it is by a reduced majority. However, It is likely that even with the full success of all its programmes, there could still be about 50-60% of households that are still unhappy (Marginal Farmers+Unemployed+Poorest+Minorities) making any failures in any of these plans potentially very risky.